Manifold Markets Simulation


Collecting Manifold Markets odds for US 2024 Presidential Elections
Build time: 2024-11-06 06:04:54 UTC

Current EV Distribution

D: 226 - R: 312

Democrat states: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-1, MD, MA, MN, NE-2, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA and WA

Republican states: AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME-2, MI, MS, MO, MT, NE, NE-1, NE-3, NV, NC, ND, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WI and WY

Monte Carlo Simulation Result

D: 4% - R: 96%
D: 237 - R: 301

Democrat states: AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-1, MD, MA, MN, NE-2, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA and WA

Republican states: AL, AK, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME-2, MI, MS, MO, MT, NE, NE-1, NE-3, NV, NC, ND, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WI and WY

Adjusted Monte Carlo Simulation Result

D: 0% - R: 100%
D: 226 - R: 312

Democrat states: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-1, MD, MA, MN, NE-2, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA and WA

Republican states: AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME-2, MI, MS, MO, MT, NE, NE-1, NE-3, NV, NC, ND, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WI and WY

Adjusted for State Correlation - Monte Carlo Simulation Result

D: 25% - R: 75%
D: 246 - R: 292

Democrat states: MI, AZ, NC, NV, NH, CO, CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-1, MD, MA, NE-2, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT and WA

Republican states: GA, WI, PA, IA, OH, FL, VA, MN, ME-2, TX, NM, AL, AK, AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NE-1, NE-3, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV and WY

Monte Carlo Simulation Result (Swing States Only)

D: 1% - R: 99%
D: 237 - R: 301

Democrat states: and AZ

Republican states: GA, MI, NV, NC, PA and WI

Alabama (9 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Alaska (3 EV)
R: 96.6% - D: 3.4%
Arizona (11 EV)
R: 80.6% - D: 19.4%
Arkansas (6 EV)
R: 99.1% - D: 0.9%
California (54 EV)
R: 1.0% - D: 99.0%
Colorado (10 EV)
R: 0.9% - D: 99.1%
Connecticut (7 EV)
R: 0.8% - D: 99.2%
Delaware (3 EV)
R: 0.8% - D: 99.2%
District of Columbia (3 EV)
R: 0.6% - D: 99.4%
Florida (30 EV)
R: 97.4% - D: 2.6%
Georgia (16 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Hawaii (4 EV)
R: 1.0% - D: 99.0%
Idaho (4 EV)
R: 99.1% - D: 0.9%
Illinois (19 EV)
R: 0.9% - D: 99.1%
Indiana (11 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Iowa (6 EV)
R: 98.2% - D: 1.8%
Kansas (6 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Kentucky (8 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Louisiana (8 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Maine-State (2 EV)
R: 4.0% - D: 96.0%
Maine-ME-1 (1 EV)
R: 2.7% - D: 97.3%
Maine-ME-2 (1 EV)
R: 95.4% - D: 4.6%
Maryland (10 EV)
R: 0.8% - D: 99.2%
Massachusetts (11 EV)
R: 0.8% - D: 99.2%
Michigan (15 EV)
R: 76.8% - D: 23.2%
Minnesota (10 EV)
R: 3.0% - D: 97.0%
Mississippi (6 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Missouri (10 EV)
R: 97.3% - D: 2.7%
Montana (4 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Nebraska-State (2 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Nebraska-NE-1 (1 EV)
R: 97.4% - D: 2.6%
Nebraska-NE-2 (1 EV)
R: 13.6% - D: 86.4%
Nebraska-NE-3 (1 EV)
R: 99.9% - D: 0.1%
Nevada (6 EV)
R: 73.4% - D: 26.6%
New Hampshire (4 EV)
R: 1.0% - D: 99.0%
New Jersey (14 EV)
R: 1.7% - D: 98.3%
New Mexico (5 EV)
R: 0.1% - D: 99.9%
New York (28 EV)
R: 0.6% - D: 99.4%
North Carolina (16 EV)
R: 96.8% - D: 3.2%
North Dakota (3 EV)
R: 99.1% - D: 0.9%
Ohio (17 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Oklahoma (7 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Oregon (8 EV)
R: 0.9% - D: 99.1%
Pennsylvania (19 EV)
R: 86.2% - D: 13.8%
Rhode Island (4 EV)
R: 0.9% - D: 99.1%
South Carolina (9 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
South Dakota (3 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Tennessee (11 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Texas (40 EV)
R: 98.4% - D: 1.6%
Utah (6 EV)
R: 99.2% - D: 0.8%
Vermont (3 EV)
R: 0.9% - D: 99.1%
Virginia (13 EV)
R: 0.3% - D: 99.7%
Washington (12 EV)
R: 0.8% - D: 99.2%
West Virginia (4 EV)
R: 99.0% - D: 1.0%
Wisconsin (10 EV)
R: 89.7% - D: 10.3%
Wyoming (3 EV)
R: 99.1% - D: 0.9%
Total EV: 538

Manifold Market US 2024 Election Forecast

https://manifold.markets/

Polls state markets created by https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics for the 2024 US Presidential Election, and runs simulations to forecast the outcome.

Current EV Distribution

Shows the current distribution of Electoral Votes (EV) giving the party with >50% the win.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Runs 100,000 simulations of the election, and shows the percentage won and distribution of EVs for each party.

Adjusted Monte Carlo Simulation

Same as Monte Carlo except it moves <25% to 0% and >75% to 100%. For example this gives Texas (https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-2ad2e0596c59) 100% to Republicans.

Adjusted with Correlations Monte Carlo Simulation

Uses https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/pairwise-state-results-which-pairs to adjust the Monte Carlo simulation based on correlations between states.

Adjusted odds

``` def adjust_odds(x):

if x < 0.25:
    return 0
elif x > 0.75:
    return 1
else:
    return x

```

Reference

Github: https://github.com/JohanNorberg/mm_us24el Website: https://johannorberg.github.io/mm_us24el/